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CNBC Daily Open: Don't ignore the risks as a dovish Fed drives markets

View of the Federal Reserve building in the capital, 3 October 2024, USA, Washington.
Valerie Plesch | Picture Alliance | Getty Images

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

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Majority behind half-point cut
A "substantial majority" of Federal Open Market Committee members backed a 50 basis point cut, meeting minutes released Wednesday showed. Some officials, however, favored a quarter-point interest rate cut. "A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization," the summary stated.

Another record high for stocks
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a fresh high Wednesday. Technology stocks climbed, pushing up the Nasdaq Composite. Europe's Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.66%, its best performance in two weeks. Shares of Germany's Bayer slumped 6.79% after a U.S. court said it would review a case against the pharmaceutical firm.

Close to record close for Nvidia
Nvidia shares have rallied 25% in the last month and are currently trading at $132.34. That's inches away from its record close of $135.58. Nvidia is now the world's second biggest company in terms of market capitalization, overtaking Microsoft and behind only Apple. "We see NVDA remaining the leader in the AI training and inference chips," Mizuho analysts wrote in a note on Wednesday.

S&P ETF outperforms hedge funds
In 2007, Warren Buffet made a million-dollar bet that the S&P 500 would outperform a basket of hedge funds within a 10-year period. Buffett won that wager, and said he'd be willing to bet on passive investing again. But does that belief still hold true in today's post-pandemic, geopolitically fragmented world?

[PRO] Tough birthday for the bull
The S&P 500's bull market will celebrate its two-year birthday soon. But it's a difficult period for the market to go through. The bull market faces escalating conflict in the Middle East, increasing oil prices and an uptick in Treasury yields. And even though history says the bull run should continue, some analysts are skeptical about it.

The bottom line

Markets are still in the woods.

Hurricane Milton's making landfall in south central Florida. The storm will reduce fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth in the U.S. by up to 0.4 percentage points, said EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco.

Tensions in the Middle East remain high. While oil prices have calmed down, there's a risk that global benchmark Brent oil will surge by $10 to $20 per barrel, if Israel attacks Iranian oil infrastructure, according to a Goldman Sachs research note.

The yield curve between the 2- and 10-year Treasury notes is steepening. And the S&P 500 "is vulnerable to bigger corrections when the yield curve is steepening," Bank of America technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier wrote in a client note.

That's a thorny thicket to navigate through. Yet markets are hitting all-time highs.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.71% to close at 5,792.04, a fresh record. Likewise, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day at a new high of 42,512.00, adding 1.03%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%, fueled by technology stocks including Amazon, Apple and Super Micro Computer.

Sentiment in markets, it seems, was buoyed by encouraging comments from the Fed. Minutes of the central bank's September meeting stated that "a substantial majority of participants" backed a jumbo cut "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks."

Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reemphasized that stance, saying in a Tuesday event that "to maintain the strength of the labor market, my FOMC colleagues and I recalibrated our policy stance last month."

The Fed, in other words, is keeping a close eye on the economy and wants to make sure it maintains its smooth landing.

"You wake up and there's a headline about the hurricane, energy. At this point, we're really not seeing a lot of those risks getting priced in," Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, pointed out. "The Fed is the key thing, that's the big driver."

It's as if Stephen Sondheim's musical "Into the woods to get the money," markets are merrily singing. Investors just need to make sure they're home before dark.

– CNBC's Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin and Sarah Min contributed to this story.   

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