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CNBC Daily Open: Treasury yields are putting pressure on stocks again

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the first day of trading of the new year on January 02, 2025 in New York City. 
Spencer Platt | Getty Images

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

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The bottom line

As the first trading day of the year opened, all major indexes advanced, giving rise to the hope that stocks could begin 2025 bright and cheery.

But, like workers shedding the new year festivities and glumly marching back to the office, stocks lost their sheen, began tilting down and closed the session lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 0.36%, the S&P 500 fell 0.22% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.16%. Their loss on Thursday means the S&P and Nasdaq have closed lower for five consecutive sessions, their longest losing streaks since April.

The likely culprit? Rising Treasury yields. After dipping initially, the 10-year Treasury yield began to climb and, at 12 p.m. U.S. time, was close to touching 4.6%. That coincided with the time stocks began to decline: The S&P 500 lost around 60 points between 12 p.m. to 1 p.m.

Even though the 10-year yield eventually levelled off at the end of the day, persistently high yields are a threat to stocks because they represent a safer avenue where investors can stash their cash. When Treasurys can give a guaranteed 4.6% return, the risk of betting on stocks seems less attractive.

Treasurys might be even more appealing this year because analysts don't expect the S&P to return anywhere near its 23.31% surge in 2024. It's more likely to gain 9% in 2025, on a median basis, according to the CNBC Market Strategist Survey released in December.

Given that backdrop, stocks may not adequately compensate investors for the risk they are taking relative to owning bonds.

As Max Kettner, HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist, wrote in a Thursday note, "Hawkish pivot by the Fed prompts a further rise in yields, triggering what we call the Danger Zone."

That said, Kettner thinks the market choppiness now "should create attractive entry points given that fundamentals are still on a solid footing — we think [the first half of 2025] will bring a proper Goldilocks backdrop."

Even a highway to the danger zone must lead beyond it to another destination eventually.

— CNBC's Lisa Kailai Han, Sarah Min, Jesse Pound and Christina Cheddar Berk contributed to this report.

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