Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
- Oil prices have pulled back from their highs on geopolitical tensions, but there is still a risk of supply disruption in the Middle East, according to Rystad Energy.
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Crude oil futures rose slightly Thursday after a four-day losing streak as fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East eased and a surplus looms over the market next year.
Although Israel has held back from retaliating against Iran so far, the situation "could change at a moment's notice," said Aditya Saraswat, Middle East research director at Rystad Energy.
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"In a widespread regional war scenario, Iran and Israel's conflict could severely impact gas exports and lead to delays in oil development projects," Saraswat said in a note Thursday.
Here are Thursday's energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $70.40 per barrel, up 1 cent, or 0.01%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has fallen nearly 2%.
- Brent December contract: $74.24 per barrel, up 2 cents, or 0.03%. Year to date, the global benchmark has declined more than 3%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0358 per gallon, down 0.22%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back more than 3%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.374 per thousand cubic feet, up 0.3%. Year to date, gas has declined more than 5%.
Israel has reportedly told the U.S. that it will refrain from hitting Iran's oil facilities in retaliation for the Islamic Republic's Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack. The oil market sold off steeply Tuesday on reports that Israel will limit its strike to military targets in Iran.
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An attack on oil facilities, however, could disrupt 1.4 million barrels per day of Iran's production, Saraswat said. A full-blown war could lead to Iran choking the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing 12 million bpd of oil and "driving up prices sharply," the analyst said.
