‘Moana 2'-led Thanksgiving box office could be best in post-pandemic era

• Disney's "Moana 2" is set to hit theaters Wednesday and generate between $120 million and $150 million in box-office receipts in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday.
• It'll be joined by Universal's "Wicked" and Paramount's "Gladiator II," both in their second week of domestic screenings.
• Box-office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily clear $200 million in ticket sales and could even become the second- or third-highest Thanksgiving period in cinematic history.

The domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving haul since the pandemic thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a revenge-fueled gladiator.

Disney's "Moana 2" is set to hit theaters Wednesday and generate between $120 million and $150 million in box office receipts in the U.S. and Canada through Sunday. It'll be joined by Universal's "Wicked" and Paramount's "Gladiator II," both in their second week of domestic screenings.

Box-office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily clear $200 million in ticket sales and could even become the second- or third-highest Thanksgiving period in cinematic history.

"The trifecta of 'Moana 2,' 'Wicked,' and 'Gladiator II' is a bona fide perfect storm for movie theaters this Thanksgiving," said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.

"The holiday used to regularly see major releases combining for all-audience appeal, but that's been a challenge for the industry to replicate in the post-pandemic era so far," he said. "This year is much different with such a holy trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor some of the biggest all-around box office results the holiday frame has ever seen."

The Thanksgiving holiday haul hasn't topped $200 million since 2019, according to data from Comscore. Currently, the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend is 2018's slate, led by "Ralph Breaks the Internet," "Creed II" and "Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald," which generated $315 million in ticket sales combined. The second-highest haul for the holiday period was the $294.2 million secured during the same five-day period in 2013.

"Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters as it sets the tone for the year-end box office sprint," said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. "The strength of the final few weeks of the year will determine the total annual box office revenue and its perception as either a win or a loss for the industry."

Disney could use another animation win.

After ruling the Thanksgiving box office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it's failed to live up to expectations with its recent string of releases.

In 2016, "Moana" opened over the Thanksgiving holiday, generating $82.1 million. The following year "Coco" took in $72.9 million during its opening, and in 2018 "Ralph Breaks the Internet" tallied $84.8 million during its debut over the five-day period. Just before the pandemic in 2019, "Frozen II" added $125 million over the Thanksgiving holiday after opening the week before to more than $130 million.

Meanwhile, "Encanto," which arrived during the midst of the pandemic, managed to tally $40.6 million in 2021. "Strange World" flopped, having scooped up just $18.9 million during the holiday period in 2022, and "Wish" snared a meager $31.6 million in 2023. No Disney animated film was released over Thanksgiving in 2020.

"Moana 2" should outperform these post-pandemic releases, however. It arrives in theaters a year after the first film was named the top-streamed film aimed at kids and families. And audiences came out in droves for Disney and Pixar's "Inside Out 2" over the summer. "Inside Out 2" opened to $154.2 million domestically and tallied more than $1 billion globally during its full run.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC and Fandango. NBCUniversal distributed "Wicked."