- The S&P 500 has gone on to gain around 1.5% on average between Election Day and the end of that respective calendar year, data from every presidential matchup since 1980 shows.
- The 2024 election is poised to join a list of tight races.
The closest presidential races have brought stronger relief rallies, according to data from past election cycles analyzed by CNBC.
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The S&P 500 has gone on to gain around 1.5% on average between Election Day and the end of that respective calendar year, data from every presidential matchup since 1980 shows. That average performance shoots up to 3.9% when looking at just the tightest races from that period.
It is a trend that is true across postelection timeframes. When averaging or finding the median of just the closest contests — 2000, 2004, 2016 and 2020 — it is higher than the broader figures for the session immediately following Election Day, as well as a week and month later.
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The 2024 election is poised to join that list of tight races. NBC News' latest polling shows the contest is neck-and-neck between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as Americans head to the polls on Tuesday.
"Very close elections, like the one we have currently, are usually greeted with a market bounce, irrespective of who wins or the policies they introduce," TS Lombard economist Dario Perkins said in a note to clients.
One key difference when looking at only close races is the next-day and week-later returns. While historical data shows stocks typically pull back in these periods, tight election cycles have tended to bring near-term gains.
Money Report
Perkins pointed to research on the topic listing a "resolution of uncertainty" as one reason driving the expectation for gains after the election. But he also warned that a lack of clarity on who wins can lead to a bad market reaction in the short term.
That is something on the minds on Wall Street and beyond this Election Day. Only some states have changed ballot counting rules to avoid delays in results seen in 2020. Almost 80 million Americans have voted early or by mail for this election, according to NBC News.
Investors have been setting their bets well before polls have started closing. Notably, Trump Media & Technology, a stock viewed as a proxy for betting on the Republican nominee's odds of victory, has whipsawed in recent weeks.
It has been an unusually strong runup to voting day. With a gain of nearly 20%, 2024 recorded the best first 10 months of a presidential election year since 1936, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
