Trump's tariff proposals would mean ‘consumers are going to pay more,' says economist—here's why

In a presidential debate that critics said lacked on concrete policy points, one financial issue may have stood out to money-conscious Americans: tariffs.

President Donald Trump doubled down on his plan to install a blanket tariff of up to 20% on all imports, with additional tariffs of 60% to 100% on goods brought in from China. Trump characterized the plan as a way to extract money from rival nations.

"Other countries are going to, finally, after 75 years, pay us back for all that we've done for the world," he said.

Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged that the Biden administration kept Trump Era tariffs in place, but characterized the former president's new proposal as a "20% sales tax on everyday goods that you rely on to get through the month."

As with any policy proposal, soundbites fail to fully convey how voters will be affected. But as a general rule, economists tend to agree that, for U.S. consumers, higher tariffs tend to mean higher prices.

"If President Trump raises tariffs on imported goods, it means inevitably that American consumers are going to pay more," Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, told CNBC.

Here's what the proposed policy means for your money.

What tariffs mean for your money

Simply put, a tariff is a tax on imports, though not one paid by the exporting country, as Trump often characterizes it. Rather, if you're a company in the U.S. seeking to import goods from China, you have to pay more to bring them in.

This generally serves two purposes. One is to protect certain domestic industries. By making it more expensive to import a product, the U.S. government effectively prevents foreign firms from undercutting the prices of American companies.

The other is to generate revenue for the U.S. government, though tariffs haven't been a major contributor to what the government takes in for more than 70 years.

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A side effect of imposing tariffs — and what Harris and her campaign are homing in on — is that importing companies that pay the tax tend to pass that cost along.

"Ultimately, the cost of tariffs will be paid by us, the consumer," says George Ball, chairman of investment management firm Sanders Morris. "They'll be buying things at higher prices than they otherwise would."

Exactly how much higher prices would go, though, is tricky to pin down, and it certainly isn't as much of a straight line as Harris' "20% sales tax" characterization makes it sound, says Clark Bellin, chief investment officer at Bellwether Wealth.

"Especially when you throw the inflation we've been having into the mix, it's hard to come up with a line item like, this is how much things have gone up because of tariffs," he says.

Notably, Trump instituted a new set of tariffs on certain products when he took office, and inflation remained moderate throughout his presidency.

Still, a number of organizations say that Trump's new tariff policy would have a negative tangible effect on American consumers' finances.

Harris said in this week's debate that the policy would cost middle-class families $4,000, a number in line with estimates from the left-leaning Center for American Progress and the right-leaning American Action Forum. The non-partisan Peterson Institute for International Economics pegs the yearly cost at $2,600.

Plus, financial experts say a more aggressive tariff policy could be viewed as a form of economic saber-rattling.

"Typically in a situation where a country is imposing a number of new tariffs, what you tend to see is reaction from the other countries that are impacted," says Sam Millette, director of fixed income at Commonwealth Financial Network.

"That creates a trade war. And effectively, what that does is create a situation where both impacted countries are seeing this government intervention. It tends to lead to higher prices for consumers in both countries."

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