Ukraine congratulates Trump — but a Republican win will scare Kyiv

• Ukraine congratulated Donald Trump ahead of him winning the U.S. election Wednesday morning.
• Trump boasted he could "end the war" between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours if elected, signaling that he would pull the plug on Ukraine funding in order to force it into a negotiated settlement with Russia.
• Analysts say Ukraine could then be pushed into a "bad peace" with its powerful neighbor.

Ukraine congratulated Donald Trump ahead of him winning the U.S. election Wednesday morning, with Kyiv's leadership putting a brave face on a Republican victory that's seen as a bad outcome for the country in terms of military aid and, potentially, its territorial integrity.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was among the first leaders to congratulate Trump, who declared victory in the presidential election early Wednesday morning. NBC News later projected him as president-elect, putting him on the path to become the 47^th leader of the United States.

Posting on X, Zelenskyy praised Trump on his "impressive election victory" and said he was optimistic that he and the former U.S. president, who has threatened to cut Ukraine funding quickly if elected, could work together toward peace in Ukraine.

"I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together," Zelenskyy commented.

It's possible that Republicans could achieve a clean sweep, winning control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. That would make it easy for a Republican administration to block future military funding for Ukraine.

Trump had previously boasted he could "end the war" in 24 hours if elected, signaling that he would pull the plug on Ukraine funding in order to force it into a negotiated settlement with Russia. Analysts say Ukraine could then be pushed into a "bad peace" with its powerful neighbor, and potentially forced to relinquish almost 20% of its territory in the south and east that's currently occupied by Russian forces.

Ukraine is heavily reliant on its international partners for military, financial and humanitarian aid that enables it to continue functioning as a state, and fighting Russia after almost three years of war. The U.S. election, and the future of that funding and support, was seen as a make-or-break moment for Kyiv.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy said Ukraine looked "forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump's decisive leadership" and that Kyiv "continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States."

Ahead of the vote, a senior Ukrainian official told CNBC that a potential Republican halt to U.S. funding for Ukraine would be "heavily unfavorable for Ukraine" and that while Kyiv had its "opinion about the different candidates," it hoped it could rely on U.S. support until it achieved victory and a "just peace."

Trump against more aid

Trump has been heavily critical of massive aid packages for Ukraine and has lambasted Zelenskyy, describing him in June as "maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived." He suggested Ukraine's requests for — and receipt of — U.S. military aid packages were based on Zelenskyy's deftness and skills as a diplomat, rather than on Ukraine's actual needs.

Trump added that "every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion," referring to a major U.S. aid package wrangled over by Republicans and Democrats, and finally agreed in April.

Ahead of the Nov. 5 vote, it was widely agreed that a Trump administration and hardline Republicans would be far more hostile toward granting Ukraine more funding. Trump's running mate J.D. Vance has been explicit in his opposition to further aid for Kyiv, arguing that the U.S. should encourage the country to strike a peace deal with Russia and that Ukraine should be prepared to cede land to Moscow.

A Trump victory creates considerable uncertainty for both Ukraine and its other international partners, according to Matthew Savill, director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank.

"President Zelenskyy has already congratulated Trump, and is no doubt hoping that the latter's desire to be seen as a 'winner' means that he throws his weight behind supporting Ukraine. But his desire for a deal – and probably a quick one – does not bode well for sustained U.S. support, especially with the current pressure on Ukraine. Trump will have to contend with Congress, but there is significant scepticism about Ukraine amongst many Republicans, and a general U.S. focus towards China," he said.

Savill continued, in emailed comments, that Russia will see Trump's likely victory as "an incentive to keep on pressing home its advantage in numbers. Meanwhile, Europe and NATO as an institution should consider where they can take on more, while President Biden might choose in his last months in office to use the remainder of the funding available for support to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority, amounting to over $5 billion."

In a fiery presidential debate with his Democrat rival Kamala Harris in September, Trump was asked several times if he wanted Ukraine to win the war, or whether it was in the U.S.′ best interests for Kyiv to achieve victory.

He responded by insisting that he wants the war to stop in order to save lives, and that he would look to negotiate a deal with Russia. He did not state how a deal would be reached, or whether it would involve Ukraine ceding occupied territory to Russia — a concession that Kyiv has previously refused to make.

Trump also claimed that the war would not have started if he had been in power in 2022 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin "would be sitting in Moscow, and he wouldn't have lost 300,000 men and women" in the war.

Exact war casualty figures are unknown as neither Russia nor Ukraine release such sensitive information, but U.S. intelligence estimated in December last year that around 315,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the war, up to that point in time.