If you’re in need of a pick-me-up this winter, now might be a good time to think about a vacation. And there are some encouraging predictions about flying in the year ahead.
“The average price of airfare is actually 12% lower than it was last year,” said Katy Nastro, a travel expert with Going.com. “We don't anticipate that we're going to see any major price hikes.”
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Going.com predicts 5% price changes, either up or down, in the months ahead. This time of year, there are Boston bargains to be had.
Nastro said in the next couple of months you can fly roundtrip from Boston to Barcelona for $294, Boston to Chicago for $107, and Boston to Costa Rica for $386. And she said there are plenty of flight deals to be had, especially on routes between Boston and Europe.
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“We're looking to see even more people traveling than they did in 2023,” Nastro said.
And last year, was a record breaker. People took more than 846 million flights in the U.S. While there are more passengers, there are also more pilots.
“The airlines have really done a better job at trying to minimize flight disruptions when they can,” Nastro said.
The pros at Going.com expect fewer than 2% of flights will be cancelled in the year ahead and have more good news for people who fly regular economy.
“We're pretty confident moving forward into 2024 that we're not going to see any major U.S carriers reinstate change fees,” Nastro said.
What about Maui, which suffered from those devastating fires last year? Say aloha to a rebound.
“The amount of people traveling to the island is down about 30% from where it was a year ago,” Nastro said. “We do anticipate that Maui will see more travelers to its island, maybe not 100%.”
If you’re worried about lost bags, your best bet is to carry on. And you might be surprised to hear that Going.com says budget carriers actually perform the best when it comes to bags because they fly more direct routes.
We may see more bargain prices on flights to Mexico, since Mexican air carriers have been allowed to add new routes.
But there are some key things you might want to watch out for as your plan your travel in 2024.
It may cost more to check your bags in 2024. Full-service air carriers first introduced a $15 fee per bag in 2008. It was a big shocker then. And it's only gotten worse since then.
“Most U.S. airlines charge about $30 for the first checked bag,” Nastro said. "At least two carriers will probably increase the price to $35 on top of the ones that already do."
Nastro predicts this will lead people to sign up for airline credit cards, which include free checked bags.
“It's kind of a win-win for airlines, so we anticipate that this is something that's likely to occur in 2024,” she said.
But she also said people should look out for more airlines to devalue their frequent flyer miles.
“In 2023, we saw the pretty infamous mileage devaluation by Delta,” she said.
Passengers need to fly more and pay more to get upgrades and free flights. Delta also capped lounge visits for some card holders.
“When it comes to miles, it really is just not as lucrative to try to gain status as it was in the past,” Nastro said.
And what about mergers in the airline industry? While a federal judge blocked the JetBlue Spirit deal this week, Going.com predicts the Justice Department will allow the Alaska Airlines-Hawaiian Airlines merger to go through.
“That's because Hawaiian has a smaller network. They don't fly to as many places,” she said.
Nastro said the single biggest reason for cheap flights is competition.
“Having smaller carriers and budget carriers, you know, even if you don't fly them, we still want them in the mix to put downward pressure on pricing,” she said.
And if you want a sentence to sum up air travel prospects in the year ahead, think pre-pandemic normal.
“When it comes to travel in 2024, for anyone flying in and out of the Boston area, it's going to look a lot like it did in 2019,” Nastro said.
