After years of rising, the tide may finally be turning on deadly drug overdoses in America.
Drug overdose deaths fell 12.7% in the 12 months ending in May, according to preliminary data released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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“This is the largest recorded reduction in overdose deaths,” White House officials said in a statement. “And the sixth consecutive month of reported decreases in predicted 12-month total numbers of drug overdose deaths.”
It’s also the first time since early 2021 that the number of estimated drug overdose deaths for a 12-month period fell below 100,000, to 98,820.
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It’s categorically good news. It’s also a bit puzzling to the public health experts who have been working for years to stop the upward trajectory of opioid deaths, driven primarily by fentanyl.
In Cleveland, for example, monthly overdose deaths in the first three months of this year fell by 40% compared to last year, according to the city’s public health director, Dr. David Margolius.
It’s unclear what prompted the sudden, unexpected decline. Overdose reduction strategies like increased availability of Narcan, a rescue medication that can reverse opioid overdoses, were in use long before the abrupt drop.
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“We’ve been doing the things we’re doing for over 10 years. I’d love to say it’s finally working,” said Dr. Joan Papp, an emergency physician at Cleveland’s MetroHealth Medical Center. “But boy, I don’t know. I wish I knew so I could bottle it.”
One potential factor at play: People are no longer using drugs in isolation as they did during the height of the pandemic. Now, they’re more likely to use around other people who could call 911 or give a dose of Narcan.
A continuing trend?
Forty-one states saw decreases in drug overdose deaths in the 12 months ending May, according to the latest CDC data.
“For the first time since at least 2018, national data for 2023 showed a decline in overdose deaths compared to the previous year,” Chrissie Juliano, executive director of the Big Cities Health Coalition, a group that represents health officials from the nation’s largest cities, said during a media briefing Thursday. “Provisional 2024 national data continues this trend.”
Even the nation’s largest metropolitan area — New York City — saw a small but measurable drop.
In 2023, 3,046 people in the city died of a drug overdose, according to its health officials. That’s a 1% decrease from 2022 and the city’s first drop in overdose deaths since 2018.
Dr. Ashwin Vasan, commissioner of New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene who is leaving office Friday, said during the briefing that he was “cautiously and humbly excited” about the city’s latest drug overdose numbers.
Officials in Seattle echoed the national trend.
“For the first time in several years, we’re starting to see a significant decrease in overdose deaths,” Brad Finegood, who oversees overdose and addiction programs in Seattle, said during Thursday’s briefing.
The city logged 22% fewer overdose deaths in the first nine months of this year compared to last year. The number of nonfatal overdoses fell, as well, he said.
“That represents an extremely significant decline,” Finegood said.
He said that in Seattle, about 85% of people who use drugs carry Narcan.
“While we know that they can’t reverse their own overdose, they’re often the first one on the scene and able to reverse an overdose that could be fatal, to bring somebody back to life,” he said.
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