A key Senate matchup and a ‘squad' member on defense: What to watch in Tuesday's primaries

Tuesday’s primaries in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Connecticut and Vermont will set the matchups in a slew of competitive races that will be key to the battle for the House and the Senate in November.

While there is not much drama in this week’s primaries, they will officially kick off the general election in four states, most notably in Wisconsin, a presidential battleground that will also be central to Democrats’ efforts to protect their narrow Senate majority. 

Businessman Eric Hovde, who secured former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, is expected to advance out of Wisconsin’s Republican primary to face Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, as he does not face any high-profile opponents. 

Three other senators up for re-election — Minnesota’s Amy Klobuchar, Connecticut’s Chris Murphy and Vermont’s Bernie Sanders — will also learn who their GOP challengers will be Tuesday, but their races are not expected to be competitive this fall. 

While Republicans have been looking to put Minnesota in play in the presidential race, defeating Klobuchar would be a tall order, as she has won each of her last three races by 20 percentage points or more. Former NBA player Royce White has led the GOP field in fundraising and has the state party’s endorsement in the primary, but he has faced criticism relating to unpaid child support and past incendiary comments. 

Tuesday’s primaries will also determine the matchups for some notable House seats, with Republicans looking to defend their slim majority. 

GOP Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil of Wisconsin could both face competitive races in November. While Steil is expected to face Democratic former Rep. Peter Barca, multiple Democrats are competing to take on Van Orden. The top fundraisers in the Democratic primary include nonprofit leader Rebecca Cooke, state Rep. Katrina Shankland and activist Eric Wilson. 

Two potentially vulnerable House Democrats — Minnesota’s Angie Craig and Connecticut’s Jahana Hayes — will also discover Tuesday which Republican they will face in the general election. Hayes is expected to face a rematch in Connecticut’s 5th District against former state Sen. George Logan, whom she defeated by just 1 point in 2022.

Trump has backed Marine veteran Joe Teirab in the GOP primary to take on Craig in Minnesota’s 2nd District. Teirab is the top candidate in the Republican primary after his chief rival dropped out last month.

Minnesota incumbents on defense

Two House members are also looking to fend off primary challengers Tuesday.

Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar is looking to faces multiple opponents in the deep-blue 5th District, which includes Minneapolis. Her best-funded challenger is Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels, whom she defeated by just 2 points in 2022. 

This time around, Omar has far outspent Samuels, having spent more than $6.1 million on the race to Samuels’ $1.2 million as of July 24, according to the latest campaign finance reports.

Unlike other members of the “squad” of progressive lawmakers who have lost primaries this year, Omar has not had to counter an onslaught of attack ads from outside groups. United Democratic Project, a super PAC tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel lobbying group, has not engaged in Omar’s race after it spent millions to defeat Democratic Reps. Jamaal Bowman of New York and Cori Bush of Missouri.

In Minnesota’s deep-red 7th District, GOP Rep. Michelle Fischbach failed to secure the state party’s endorsement at the April convention, but she is touting her endorsement from Trump on the airwaves. Fischbach has also gotten a boost on the airwaves from America Leads Inc., an outside group that has supported other House Republicans in recent primaries. 

Fischbach’s chief primary opponent is businessman Steve Boyd, who said in a statement in April that her inability to win the party endorsement “goes to show that Americans are turning out to show they are fed up with the establishment in Washington.”

A special election in northeast Wisconsin

There are two primary elections for Wisconsin’s 8th District on the ballot Tuesday. One is for the race to serve the two-year term starting in 2025, and one is for the race to serve out the final months of Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher’s term after he resigned in April. 

Republicans are expected to hold the seat in the fall — Gallagher repeatedly cruised to victory during his time in office, and Democrats have not represented the district, home to the Green Bay Packers, in 14 years. 

Three candidates are competing in both the special and regular primary elections. Trump and many of his allies have backed businessman Tony Wied, who has been the top Republican fundraiser. 

Both of Wied’s opponents have legislative experience: state Sen. André Jacque and former state Senate President Roger Roth. 

Only one Democrat, OB-GYN Kristin Lyerly, is on the primary ballot. 

Will Wisconsin voters restrict Evers’ power?

There are also two constitutional amendments on the Wisconsin ballot that would hamstring Democratic Gov. Tony Evers as he clashes with the Republican-controlled Legislature. 

The first ballot measure would declare the Legislature has the “sole power” to determine how to appropriate state dollars, while the second would block the governor from allocating federal dollars “without the approval of the legislature.” 

Republican lawmakers, who voted to add the questions to the primary ballot, frame the amendments as a necessary legislative check on any governor’s power. But Democrats oppose the effort, arguing that it is improper to limit the governor in this way, especially in an emergency.

This story first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBC News:

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