Analysis: GOP gains 1 legislative seat in Mass., and some confidence

Massachusetts Republicans will add one more member to their tiny minority caucus in the state Senate, and the House will retain its exact same partisan makeup if a potential recount confirms the apparent winner in one outstanding race.

Two Democrat challengers claimed victory in open House districts currently held by retiring Republicans, and two other GOP candidates won in districts now or most recently represented by Democrats.

The break-even result could change due to a recount, but if it holds, it would reflect a more muted outcome for the MassGOP after party leaders spent Tuesday night describing results as a sign of renewed strength.

MassGOP Chair Amy Carnevale told the State House News Service she still views the outcome as a success because no sitting Republicans lost their reelection bids.

"In a presidential year in Massachusetts, it's extraordinarily difficult for the Republican Party to maintain incumbents and even harder to maintain open seats," she said. "The fact that we did maintain our incumbents and flipped two seats -- again while losing two -- was a win for the party."

Even with a net gain of one Republican seat in the Senate, Democrats will retain their lock on both chambers -- an outcome that was not in doubt with so few incumbents facing any kind of opponent.

The Senate will shift to five Republicans and 35 Democrats. If results hold, the next class in the House will feature 134 Democrats, 25 Republicans and one independent. That's how the chamber started the current two-year term, but a pair of mid-session resignations by Democrats and the death of Republican Rep. Susan Williams Gifford have shrunk the current membership to 132 Democrats and 24 Republicans.

Republican Senate candidate Kelly Dooner defeated Democrat Joe Pacheco in a race to represent parts of the South Coast and communities near Taunton, flipping a district held for more than three decades by retiring Sen. Marc Pacheco (who has no relation to the candidate with the same last name).

Joe Pacheco said Wednesday morning he called Dooner to concede the race.

"While it's not the outcome I had hoped for, I am honored to have had the chance to run and I am proud that the ideas and goals our campaign carried were meaningful to many," Pacheco wrote on Facebook.

Dooner will become the first Republican woman in the Massachusetts Senate in two decades. The last was Jo Ann Sprague of Walpole, who in 2004 opted against reelection.

All four other Republican senators won reelection -- only two of them, Peter Durant and Ryan Fattman, faced opponents.

Democrats are poised to pick up a House seat in the Bridgewater area, but the prospect of a recount could delay any final outcome.

Both candidates running to succeed Republican Rep. Angelo D'Emilia, Democrat Dennis Gallagher and Republican Sandra Wright, said Gallagher was ahead by 178 votes -- about three-quarters of a percentage point -- in unofficial results.

"If this sticks, and I think it will, I am heading to Beacon Hill in January!" Gallagher wrote on Facebook around 12:30 a.m. Wednesday.

However, Wright said she would pursue a recount in Raynham, one of two towns in the district, due to unspecified "severe concerns over discrepancies observed by members of both parties in Raynham." It could take days or weeks for a recount to unfold.

Later Wednesday, Wright added that she does not "believe there was any intentional wrongdoing regarding the count in Raynham."

"Our campaign is requesting a recount to eliminate the very likely possibility of human error - we only want the most accurate count. Whether the results of the recount are in our favor or against, we will accept them with no further objections," she said.

D'Emilia, who did not seek reelection, has represented the district since he first won election in 2010. Before him, Democrat Rep. David Flynn served six terms.

Some votes might still be tallied in the coming days. Mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can get counted as long as they arrive by the third day following Tuesday. For eligible voters mailing their ballots from outside the United States, the timeline is even longer: they must arrive by 5 p.m. on the 10th day after the election.

Any candidate who wants to pursue a precinct-level recount must do so by the close of business on Friday, Nov. 16. District-wide recounts will not be possible until after elections officials certify the results, and are only available in cases where the final margin is half a percentage point or less.

Another Democrat challenger, Michelle Badger of Plymouth, defeated Republican Jesse Brown to claim the House district that Republican Rep. Mathew Muratore gave up. Muratore ran for an open Senate seat, but lost to fellow Rep. Dylan Fernandes, a Democrat.

Republicans claimed a pair of other House seats, in one case knocking out a veteran Democrat.

Justin Thurber of Somerset defeated 12-term Rep. Patricia Haddad, also of Somerset, who had once risen as high in the House's leadership ranks as speaker pro tempore under former Speaker Robert DeLeo.

Haddad was the only incumbent to lose her reelection bid Tuesday. Democrat Rep. Rady Mom of Lowell previously lost at the primary stage, as did Gifford, who died several weeks later.

Ken Sweezey, a Pembroke Republican, beat Democrat Rebecca Coletta to claim the vacant South Shore district represented by former Rep. Josh Cutler until he left in February for a job in the Healey administration.

All of the flipped districts are concentrated in southeastern Massachusetts, spanning Bristol and Plymouth counties -- an area where presidential winner Donald Trump fared comparably well despite losing the state as a whole.

Carnevale said it's "hard to know" to what degree Trump had an impact on downballot races in Massachusetts, though she suggested more Republican-leaning voters might have turned out to cast ballots for him.

MassGOP leaders are already thinking about 2026, Carnevale said, when all 200 legislative seats will again be up for election, as will the state's constitutional offices including governor.

Republicans "will be prioritizing taking back the corner office," Carnevale said, adding that at least one unnamed person has reached out to express interest in leading the party's ticket.

"I would expect that it may be a competitive process," she said. "I think we may hear from more than one candidate, but at least I certainly know that we will have Republican interest in challenging Governor Healey should she decide to run again, or another Democrat should the governor decide not to run again."

At a press conference Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Maura Healey did not directly answer when asked if she planned to seek reelection in 2026.

"I think it's a little early to make any announcements," she said. "We're dealing with this election. I love my job, and my message today to everybody in Massachusetts is that we see you. We see you, whether you voted for the president-elect or not, we see you. Whether you're feeling a lot of feelings today and maybe scared or feeling vulnerable, know that we see you."