Three Red Sox free agent targets who would fill needs and fit budget

When it comes to predicting free agent contracts, few are better than Tim Britton of The Athletic. Using historical comps and analyzing WAR totals, Britton provides a solid framework for what a particular player might expect on the open market.

Reading through Britton's predictions for the class of 2025, it seems unlikely the Red Sox will seriously explore deals for Juan Soto (13 years, $611 million) or Corbin Burnes (seven years, $217 million). But a few other names jump out for their combination of fitting a need without blowing up the payroll.

As much as we'd like to see the Red Sox return to their free-spending ways, the reality is they're likely to start with baby steps, so let's project accordingly.

In that vein, here are three names Britton highlights who should fit the Red Sox from a roster and budgetary standpoint, with his projections in parentheses.

1. Max Fried (five years, $140 million)

Even after extending a $21 million qualifying offer to Nick Pivetta, the Red Sox need to add an arm to the top of their rotation. Perhaps no one fits the sweet spot better than Fried, a left-hander who has spent his entire career with the Braves while twice finishing in the top five of NL Cy Young Award voting.

The 30-year-old pitched in the same high school rotation as Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito, who is lobbying his former Harvard-Westlake teammate to come to Boston. The two-time All-Star is 73-36 with a 3.07 lifetime ERA, and he's got oodles of postseason experience, too.

Red Sox owner John Henry has long opposed big-money free agent deals for starting pitchers, but getting Fried for less than $30 million annually represents a relative bargain.

2. Teoscar Hernandez (three years, $69 million)

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The Red Sox could've signed Hernandez last winter, but they lost him to the Dodgers on a one-year deal. They can right that wrong now.

With Tyler O'Neill probably leaving in free agency, the Red Sox have an opening for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and Hernández would be perfect. The 32-year-old has smashed at least 25 homers in each of the last four seasons, including a career-high 33 this year, when he made his second All-Star team.

More to the point, he might be the most prototypical Fenway Park hitter in baseball. He owns more homers in Fenway (14) than any other road park, and he has made no secret of his love of hitting here. He's coming off a postseason that saw him hit three homers and drive in 12 during L.A.'s run to a title, and he'd supply proven and reliable right-handed thunder alongside Rafael Devers for short years and relatively short dollars.

3. David Robertson (one year, $14 million)

The Red Sox have done pretty well with aging relievers on short-term deals recently, whether it was one year of Adam Ottavino in 2021 after a trade with the Yankees, or two-year deals for Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen that just expired. The 39-year-old Robertson could play a similar role this winter as Craig Breslow looks to rebuild Boston's bullpen.

The Red Sox need arms and they need leaders, and Robertson fills the bill. The last active member of the 2009 World Series champion Yankees, Robertson just improbably posted one of the highest strikeout rates of his career (33.5 percent) with the Rangers.

His cutter remains one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball, as evidenced by the remarkable two-day stretch in June when he was summoned to face Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman twice and struck out all three both times.

For one year, the Red Sox can afford any amount, and Robertson would provide stability and reliability to a bullpen that needs an overhaul.

Full 2025 MLB free agent rankings

• Top 20 overall
• Top 10 starting pitchers
• Top 5 relief pitchers
• Top 5 catchers
• Top 5 first basemen
• Top 5 second basemen
• Top 5 shortstops
• Top 5 third basemen
• Top 10 outfielders
• Top 10 right-handed hitters