Patriots Quarter-Pole Awards and Score Prediction for Week 5 Vs. Lions

Curran's quarter-pole awards and Week 5 Patriots prediction originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

FOXBORO – I was asked this week if Sunday’s game with the Lions was a "must-win"?

Every time my tiny brain hears that well-worn phrase, it formulates this reply: "Or what?"

Honestly, "Must win or what?" Relegation? Sell the team? It certainly doesn’t mean "Must win or you’re not making the postseason," since we aren’t even to Columbus Day.

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I know a lot of Bottom Line Billys are saying moral victories don’t exist. I understand that ignoring pertinent details is very much in vogue. But the facts do matter.

Here are some Patriots facts. They are 2-7 since last year’s bye. The only teams they beat were the one-win Jaguars last December and the soon-to-be 1-7 Steelers. They have a slew of highly-paid offensive players they can’t get the ball to. They are 28th in the league in stopping teams on third down, 29th in YPC allowed, 23rd in red zone defense, 30th in goal-to-go defense and tied for 28th in turnover differential.

With all that in mind, taking the field with a third-string quarterback -- even at home, even against an annually awful team like the Lions -- with a premise that losing would be incomprehensible and lead to some existential crisis? That’s just not being realistic. The Patriots are very capable of losing to the Lions. Mainly because they ain’t that damn good to begin with and are taking the field with Ollie from Hoosiers under center.

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The goal is the playoffs. And to get there, they need 10 wins. If they lose Sunday to an NFC team, they’ll need to go 9-3 the rest of the way. Lose next week to Cleveland? They need to go 9-2. And so on. So it’s not "must win" until they are mathematically on the brink. In my opinion.

Now, this being the quarter-pole of the season, I think it’s a good time to hand out a few awards before I give my weekly prediction. The envelopes please.

"Better than expected ... still not great" Award

Matt Patricia.

The offensive line coach/senior football advisor/offensive play-caller/de facto offensive coordinator is clearing the very low bar we set for him while watching the offense’s Sisyphean summer struggles. Again, not his fault he got strapped into the cockpit by Bill Belichick and told to fly. But it was tough, especially Week 1 in Miami.

And since? On a curve? I’d give him a B-plus for four games work relative to expectations!! Yes, the offense has managed eight total touchdowns, three through the air. Correct, asking Mac Jones to be a latter-day Daryle Lamonica or Jeff Blake is like asking Danny Woodhead to play 3-technique. Also, DAYS of offseason work pivoting the offense to a scheme that hasn’t taken seems wasteful. But Patricia has had three games of laudable work.

Coach of the Quarter Pole

Mike Pellegrino.

He’s the cornerbacks coach. And the development of the rookies -- Jack Jones in particular but Marcus Jones too -- the continued solid work of Jalen Mills and Jonathan Jones deserves a salute.

Unsung Defensive Hero

Adrian Phillips.

The safety is rock-solid and has been since getting here in 2020. He’s got 20 tackles in four games, plays on the special teams coverage units and is a tremendously physical presence for a guy who’s 5-10, 210. The Patriots have had some good unsung safeties through the years -- Duron Harmon, James Sanders, Matt Stevens -- but Phillips is one of the most complete players they’ve had on the back end and rarely gets singled out.

"C'mon, snap out of it!" Award

Isaiah Wynn.

I cannot get out of my brain how good Wynn looked as a rookie before he blew his Achilles. All summer long in 2018, he looked like a hit. And in 2020, before a knee injury landed him on IR after Week 10, he was really good again.

The past two seasons? He’s an avalanche of penalties and breakdowns. He’s guaranteed $10.413M this season. Even if the Patriots were to cut him (which, after last week’s showing against Green Bay, was very much on the minds of folks) they’re still paying him and taking the cap hit. So, for the sake of everyone including Wynn who can’t be delighted at the way things are going for him (paycheck be damned), hopefully the next 13 games go better.

"This guy did!" Award

For inspiration, Wynn can look across the huddle to Trent Brown who was … not good … in Miami and has since been an absolute beast at left tackle.

"I am Ironman!" Award

Deatrich Wise.

Through four games, big Deatrich had played 212 defensive snaps (84 percent) and 31 special teams snaps (31 percent). Last year, he played 521 defensive snaps (52 percent) and 45 special teams snaps (11 percent). And he’s producing a ton with 18 tackles and four sacks. The Patriots are laaaaaabbbboooorrrrring in stopping the run but Wise has been a bright spot so far for the front-seven.

"Hey remember me?" Award

Kendrick Bourne.

The much-discussed mothballing of Bourne has not been a positive. He’s so far played 28 percent of the offensive snaps (70 total) and been targeted just 12 times. As is his custom, he’s caught nine of them, eight of them went for first downs, he’s got one carry for 15 yards and he doesn’t have a drop.

"Perhaps you also remember me" Award

Hunter Henry.

The Patriots' very capable tight end has seen nine passes this year. NINE. He’s got five catches. The three seasons previous with the Chargers and Pats he had 55, 60 and 50 catches and saw 244 targets. You can’t have a $37.5M tight end tracking for a 20 catch, 200-yard season. Of course, with Bailey Zappe at quarterback, this may not be the time for tweaking the offense to maximize specific players. Any port in a storm, etc.

Offensive MVP

Rhamondre Stevenson.

He’s got 43 carries for 211 yards and another 11 catches for 57. Eighty-six of the rushing yards have come after contact. He remains a menace with the ball in his hands, a low-budget Ezekiel Elliot-style player who -- in another decade -- would be getting the ball 25 to 30 times a game.

Biggest Disappointment

Mac Jones. Sorry, bruh. Circumstances be damned, two touchdowns and five picks (and a couple near-picks) just doesn’t work. Even if you got booted out of the nest too soon and don’t have the requisite support staff to maximize your skills, some of the picks have been just egregious. The end zone pick against Miami. The Minkah pick vs. Pittsburgh. The end zone pick against the Ravens.

Consolation is that, for a huge stretch of the Ravens game, Jones was scintillating. So you know it’s in there. And it will return. Eventually. When he returns. If they protect for him.

Prediction

Lions 24, Patriots 19