Red Sox 2023 Preview: Stat Predictions for Each Player on Roster

Predicting 2023 season stats for each player on Red Sox roster originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The 2023 Boston Red Sox roster is just about set. A couple of question marks remain -- one bullpen spot and the Jarren Duran vs. Raimel Tapia battle -- but the rest appears to be set in stone.

Despite low expectations after a last-place 2022 season, this Red Sox club has no shortage of intriguing storylines. Top prospect Triston Casas and Japanese import Masataka Yoshida are among the odds-on favorites for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Oft-injured ace Chris Sale finally looks healthy (knock on wood!). Former top pitching prospect Brayan Bello is poised for a breakout season. The bullpen, led by veteran closer Kenley Jansen, was overhauled during the offseason.

Tomase: Red Sox' revamped bullpen already showing a few cracks

Those are the positives, but we won't blame you for looking at this season with a glass half empty. Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts is gone after signing a massive deal with the San Diego Padres. Trevor Story, who was supposed to replace Bogaerts at short, underwent elbow surgery and is set to miss most of the season. The starting rotation is filled with injury concerns.

So, what kind of production should we expect out of this team in 2023? Here's a look at the Red Sox' projected roster heading into the new season, plus stat projections for each player.

Lineup

Triston Casas, 1B: 125 games, .240 batting average/.350 on-base percentage/.425 slugging percentage, 20 home runs, 65 RBI

Casas showcased his advanced plate discipline during his brief stint in the majors last season and was arguably Boston's best hitter throughout spring training. If he gets the bat on the ball more consistently during his inaugural MLB campaign, he'll have a shot at the American League Rookie of the Year award.

Rafael Devers, 3B: 150 games, .290/.355/.530, 35 HR, 100 RBI

Devers should cruise to his third straight All-Star selection as he anchors the Red Sox lineup in 2023. As long as he stays healthy, it would not be a surprise to see him in the MVP conversation come next fall.

Justin Turner, DH: 130 games, .280/.350/.445, 17 HR, 70 RBI

While Turner's power dropped off a bit last year, he still finished the season with a career-high 36 doubles. Heading into his age-38 season, the former Dodgers star still has enough left in the tank to be a key contributor in the Red Sox lineup.

Masataka Yoshida, LF: 140 games, .295/.380/.460, 15 HR, 75 RBI

Yoshida is an enigma as he comes over from the Nippon Professional League in Japan, but his World Baseball Classic performance should have Sox fans feeling optimistic about his potential. The 29-year-old made the All-WBC team with a .409 batting average, two homers, and a tournament-record 13 RBI. He'll quickly become a fan favorite if his skill set translates to the big leagues.

Adam Duvall, CF: 110 games, .225/.280/.455, 20 HR, 65 RBI

You know what you're getting from Duvall if he's healthy. He won't win any batting titles, but he brings serious pop and an above-average glove in the outfield. The problem is he's had trouble staying on the field throughout his career. Nonetheless, his right-hander power should play well with the Green Monster at Fenway Park.

Alex Verdugo, RF: 140 games, .285/.345/.430, 12 HR, 70 RBI

This is a big year for Verdugo. Manager Alex Cora has made that clear by naming him as the player who needs to step it up in 2023. That's because it seems he has yet to show his true potential both at the plate and in the outfield. If this is the year he puts it all together, it would bring a tremendous boost to a Red Sox club that needs all the help it can get.

Kiké Hernandez, SS/CF: 130 games, .240/.325/.410, 15 HR, 55 RBI

Hernandez missed almost half of last season due to injury and his presence was missed in center field. This time, he'll be an even more important part of the roster as he's slated to take over for Bogaerts at shortstop. Those are difficult shoes to fill, but Hernandez is confident he'll prove the doubters wrong in 2023.

Christian Arroyo, 2B: 90 games, .270/.325/.435, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Arroyo has been snakebitten by injuries throughout his big-league career. When he's been healthy, he's shown why he was a first-round draft pick in 2013. He'll play an important role this season with Story missing most of the year.

Reese McGuire, C: 80 games, .250/.300/.355, 7 HR, 30 RBI

McGuire arrived in Boston after the 2022 trade deadline and was hot for the rest of the season, hitting .337 with three homers in 36 games. It's unrealistic to expect those numbers to carry into 2023, but he should serve as a solid starting catcher even as he regresses to the mean.

Bench

Yu Chang, INF: 25 games, .230/.290/.330, 3 HR, 15 RBI

Chang's value will come as a versatile defender off the bench. He has MLB experience at all four infield spots but he lacks the offensive upside of Bobby Dalbec, who will begin the season with Triple-A Worcester.

Raimel Tapia, OF: 30 games, .270/.305/.400, 5 HR, 30 RBI

Tapia edged out Duran for a spot on the Opening Day roster after an impressive spring. He'll serve as a solid backup outfielder, something the Red Sox lacked in 2022 other than Rob Refsnyder.

Jarren Duran, OF: 20 games, .225/.290/.390, 3 HR, 20 RBI

This is a make or break season for Jarren Duran in Boston. The organization's former top outfield prospect has failed to live up to expectations since debuting in 2021 and shouldn't have as long of a leash in his third season. There is no guarantee he even makes the Opening Day roster with Tapia having an outstanding spring.

Rob Refsnyder, OF: 45 games, .265/.355/.410, 5 HR, 25 RBI

Refsnyder will look to give the Red Sox exactly what he gave them in 2022, which is a reliable fourth outfielder who can provide some pop at the plate and make all of the plays in the field. He'll be a valuable piece even if there's bounce to be some regression.

Connor Wong, C: 50 games, .240/.300/.390, 5 HR, 20 RBI

Wong sustained a hamstring injury in spring training but with Jorge Alfaro optioned to Triple-A Worcester, it looks like he'll be on Boston's roster to begin the season. He'll serve as Reese McGuire's backup for now and hope to carry his offensive production from the minors into the majors.

Rotation

Corey Kluber, RHP: 29 starts, 10-12, 4.25 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.5 SO/9, 155 IP

Kluber's Cy Young days are in the past but that doesn't mean he's washed up. The veteran right-hander, who will take the mound on Opening Day, still is capable of being a workhorse and his excellent command will be a breath of fresh air. If his numbers resemble something like his 2022 stat line with Tampa Bay, it should be considered a successful campaign.

Chris Sale, LHP: 24 starts, 9-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10 SO/9, 130 IP

If you doubt Sale will even reach that 130 innings mark, we don't blame you. Sale has made only 11 starts since the end of the 2019 season due to various injuries. It's worth noting, however, his injuries last year were a broken pinky on a comebacker and a broken wrist in a bike accident. Freak injuries. We're operating under the assumption he avoids bicycles and his body (mostly) stays in one piece. We should see shades of vintage Sale as long as he's able to stay in the rotation.

Tanner Houck, RHP: 55 games (10 starts), 6-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 SO/9, 90 IP

We'll likely see Houck bounce between the rotation and bullpen, as he's done for the last couple of seasons. It's difficult to project numbers for a pitcher who switches between a starter and reliever role, but Red Sox fans have a good idea of who Houck is at this point. He'll get knocked around here and there, but he can give you five or six strong innings when called upon. His rough spring training, however, is a cause for concern.

Kutter Crawford, RHP: 40 games (five starts), 3-5, 4.15 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.5 SO/9, 70 IP

Crawford impressed in spring training and earned a spot in the rotation to begin the season with Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock, and James Paxton on the injured list. It was an up-and-down 2022 season for the 26-year-old, but his hot stretch in July/August showed he's deserving of some sort of role. He'll likely come out of the bullpen once the starting rotation gets healthy.

Nick Pivetta, RHP: 30 games (25 starts), 8-11, 4.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 9 SO/9, 150 IP

Pivetta was the Red Sox' workhorse with 179.2 innings pitched in 33 starts last season. But heading into the 2023 campaign, he's barely hanging on to a starting job. It'll be interesting to see how Cora manages the rotation once Bello, Whitlock, and Paxton are healthy. Pivetta could be forced out.

Bullpen

Josh Winckowski, RHP: 4.30 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7 SO/9, 80 IP

Winckowski made the Opening Day roster as a long reliever after struggling as a spot starter in 2022. It could be a more fitting role for the 24-year-old.

Richard Bleier, LHP: 3.60 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6 SO/9, 55 IP

The Red Sox acquired Bleier from the Miami Marlins in exchange for Matt Barnes during the offseason. The soon-to-be 36-year-old gives Boston a much-needed southpaw out of the 'pen who doesn't walk many hitters. In seven seasons, Bleier has a career walk rate of 1.5 BB/9.

Zack Kelly, RHP: 3.75 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8 SO/9, 45 IP

Kelly was promoted to the big-league roster last August and posted a 3.95 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. He impressed during spring training with only three earned runs in 10 innings over eight appearances. He'll serve as a multi-inning reliever, at least until the pitchers on Boston's injured list get healthy.

Ryan Brasier, RHP: 4.10 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9 SO/9, 55 IP

Brasier will get a chance to redeem himself after a disastrous 2022 season in which he posted a 5.78 ERA through 68 appearances. He is one of only three players from the 2018 World Series team still on the roster (Devers, Sale).

John Schreiber, RHP: 3.55 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9, 65 IP

Schreiber came out of nowhere to be the Red Sox' most reliable reliever last season. There almost certainly will be some regression, but the right-hander will be key to the bullpen's success again in 2023.

Chris Martin, RHP: 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.5 SO/9, 65 IP

Martin will serve as Boston's set-up man after spending 2022 with the Cubs and Dodgers. The Red Sox will hope the 36-year-old's tenure will resemble his time in L.A., where he had a 1.46 ERA and 0.53 WHIP in 26 appearances.

Kenley Jansen, RHP: 35 saves, 3.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 12 SO/9, 60 IP

Jansen, a three-time All-Star and World Series champion with the Dodgers, gives the Red Sox the go-to closer they've lacked for the last few years. The 35-year-old veteran led the league with 41 saves last season in Atlanta.

Injured list

Trevor Story, 2B/SS: 50 games, .240/.320/.460, 10 HR, 35 RBI

Story will miss most of the year after undergoing elbow surgery over the winter. If and when he returns, he'll be a welcome addition to a lineup that could use the additional pop.

Adalberto Mondesi, 2B/SS: 50 games, .230/.290/.400, 7 HR, 30 RBI

Mondesi simply hasn't been able to stay healthy during his seven-year career. Over the last two seasons, he has played in only 50 games. The 27-year-old will bring a unique blend of power and speed if he can finally stay on the field, though he's already set to go on the IL when the season begins.

James Paxton, LHP: 16 starts, 5-6, 4.10 ERA,1.25 WHIP, 8.5 SO/9, 100 IP

Paxton has made only six starts since the end of the 2019 season due to injuries. In his first start with the Red Sox this spring, he sustained a hamstring injury that could sideline him for the first month fo the campaign. Red Sox fans shouldn't expect much from the veteran southpaw until he proves capable of staying off the IL.

Brayan Bello, RHP: 25 starts, 8-7, 3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9 SO/9, 140 IP

Bello (forearm) will begin the season on the IL but Red Sox fans should not be worried. The former top prospect shined in his final spring start and should be back in Boston's rotation at some point in April. He'll be one of the most exciting players on the roster to watch in 2023.

Garrett Whitlock, RHP: 23 starts, 8-6, 3.50 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.5 SO/9, 130 IP

Like Bello, Whitlock (hip) will begin the season on IL but should return fairly quickly. When he does, it'll likely be as a starter. He posted a 2.75 ERA last season as a reliever and a 4.15 ERA as a starter last year.

Joely Rodriguez, LHP: 4.10 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 9 SO/9, 35 IP

The Red Sox signed Rodriguez with a glaring need for a left-handed reliever, but he will miss a chunk of the season due to an oblique strain. The 31-year-old showcased impressive stuff during the spring but there is no clear timetable for his return.

Wyatt Mills, RHP: 4.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8 SO.9, 35 IP

Mills was acquired from the Royals during the offseason. The 28-year-old sidearmer was considered a breakout candidate with similarities to last year's most valuable Red Sox reliever, John Schreiber. He'll unfortunately begin the season on the IL with a flexor issue.