In some ways, the loser of Sunday's Week 9 matchup between the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans could be the real winner long term.
That's because the losing team will strengthen its chances of earning the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
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The Titans enter Week 9 with a 1-6 record. If the season ended right now, they'd have the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft. The Patriots are right behind them in the No. 3 pick slot. New England is one of six teams with a 2-6 record, but they currently own the draft tiebreaker over all of them due to having a weaker strength of schedule.
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ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) gives the Patriots a 21.2 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, which is the second-highest of any team, but a ways below the Carolina Panthers at 45 percent. The Titans have the third-best odds at the No. 1 pick at 10.7 percent, per FPI.
Here's an in-depth breakdown of ESPN FPI's draft pick odds for the Patriots and Titans ahead of their clash this weekend.
- FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 21.2 percent for Patriots, 10.7 percent for Titans
- FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 77.3 percent for Patriots, 59.6 percent for Titans
- FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 96.3 percent for Patriots, 89.3 percent for Titans
More Patriots coverage
The Patriots have the 15th-easiest remaining schedule, with their opponents having a combined .507 win percentage. Their toughest games left are a pair of matchups versus the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills. Five of New England's final nine games are against teams that currently have a .500 record or worse.
The Panthers are a clear favorite to land the No. 1 pick, but the No. 2 selection is very much up for grabs. That's why a loss for the Patriots on Sunday would not be a disastrous outcome for the franchise.
This team needs all the elite-level talent it can get, and the most effective way to find those players is often through the draft. The difference between having the No. 2 pick and the No. 4, 5 or 6 overall selection is a large one.
