Tom Curran and Phil Perry share their picks for Stock Watch after the Patriots’ 24-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
The New England Patriots had a successful Week 16 even though they lost to the Buffalo Bills 24-21 on the road.
It was a close, competitive game in Buffalo during which the Patriots made meaningful progress, especially on defense. But more importantly, this loss to the Bills, combined with the Las Vegas Raiders' victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, moved the Patriots from the No. 3 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft order to the No. 2 pick.
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This was a huge development for the Patriots.
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The 2025 draft class is likely to be headlined by just two quarterbacks -- Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders -- which means the top two picks will be the most valuable by far. That might sound obvious, but last season there were three elite quarterback prospects, so the top three picks held immense value. In 2025, it's likely going to be just two super-valuable selections.
How can the Patriots maintain their position in the No. 2 draft slot, or even move up to No. 1 in Week 17? Here are the scenarios Patriots fans should watch for.
How Patriots can move up to No. 1 pick
The Patriots would move up from the No. 2 pick to the No. 1 pick if they lose to the Chargers on Saturday and the New York Giants beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
The Giants currently own the No. 1 pick with a league-worst 2-13 record. They are the only team with fewer than three victories. A Patriots loss and Giants win would result in both teams having a 3-13 record, but New England would get the No. 1 pick tiebreaker due to having a worse strength of schedule rating (combined winning percentage of their opponents).
The Giants need to win one more game for the Patriots (or any other team) to have any chance at getting the No. 1 pick. New York plays the Colts and Philadelphia Eagles over the final two weeks. The Colts are still alive in the AFC playoff race and the Eagles are still playing for seeding in the NFC playoff race, so there's no incentive for either team to take it easy against the Giants.
What happens if Patriots beat Chargers?
The Patriots could still win one more game and land a top-five pick.
That's because two of the five three-win teams -- the Jaguars and Titans -- play each other in Week 16. Assuming Jaguars-Titans doesn't end in a tie, one of those two AFC South franchises will finish the season with at least four wins.
The Patriots are likely to have a worse strength of schedule than any other team in the top 10 of the draft order, so if they finished tied with a 4-13 record at the end of the season, New England should get a top-five selection.
The easiest way for the Patriots to ensure they remain at No. 2 (or move up to No. 1) is by losing their final two games. If they don't win another game, there's an extremely likely chance they'll finish at No. 2. The only team whose strength of schedule could potentially dip below the Patriots is the Jaguars.
ESPN Analytics gives the Patriots just a 39.3 percent chance of beating the Chargers at home in Week 17. The Chargers beat the Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 16, so they'll have a little extra rest coming into this game. Los Angeles also should be plenty motivated for this matchup because a win clinches a playoff berth for the AFC West franchise.
Games that impact Patriots' strength of schedule
The team with the worst strength of schedule rating earns the tiebreaker for the better draft pick. That's how the Patriots have the No. 2 pick after Week 16 despite being one of six teams with a 3-12 record. Overall, New England has the league's fifth-worst strength of schedule at .464 through 15 games.
The lower the Patriots' strength of schedule, the better their chances of keeping the tiebreaker. Their SOS rating will go lower if the teams they've played this season lose. Therefore, it would be good for the Patriots if any of the following results happen in Week 17:
- Ravens beat Texans (Result: Ravens 31, Texans 2)
- Broncos beat Bengals (Saturday)
- Giants beat Colts (Sunday)
- Browns beat Dolphins (Sunday)
- Lions beat 49ers (Monday)
Other games to watch
It also would be advantageous to the Patriots if any of the other five three-win teams lose.
Therefore, Patriots fans should be rooting for these results:
- Browns beat Dolphins (Sunday)
- Raiders beat Saints (Sunday)
- Titans vs. Jaguars doesn't end in a tie (Sunday)
