As much as the New England Patriots may want to end their tumultuous 2024 season on a high note, it would be in their best interest to lose Sunday's season finale vs. the Buffalo Bills.
With a loss, they would officially secure the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. A win could drop them to as low as No. 4 overall. (Update: The Patriots officially have the No. 4 pick after beating the Bills on Sunday.)
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That fall from No. 1 to No. 4 could prove costly, especially if New England plans to trade its premium pick for a haul of assets. Before Sunday's game, Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated explained how much value the Patriots would lose in that scenario.
"If you look at the difference between the first pick and the fourth or fifth pick on the old Jimmy Johnson value chart, that's the 10th overall pick in a vacuum," Breer said on NBC Sports Boston's Patriots Pregame Live. "That's what's on the line today. If you lose the first overall pick and you fall down to four or five, you're losing the equivalent of a high first-round pick. So I think there is some value to it, of course, and I think you should be able to get multiple first-round picks for (the No. 1 pick), of course."
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Breer believes how this year's quarterback class is evaluated will ultimately decide how much value the Patriots would receive in a deal for their coveted draft pick.
"So much of that's gonna ride on what happens with the quarterback class," he said. "How does Cam Ward handle the process? How does he answer questions from the Pop-Tarts Bowl? ... Shedeur Sanders, what does he bring with him and what are you inviting in? Do you view him as a top-shelf prospect? Drew Allar from Penn State, does he declare?
"There are still a lot of unanswered questions with this year's quarterback class, and it does look a little bit like the '22 class when you had Kenny Pickett as the first quarterback taken at 20th overall and the only quarterback that went in the first round? Now, Sanders and Ward could wind up going a lot higher than that, we'll see, but I'd say it's closer to that class than it is to the last two (in 2023 and 2024)."
The Patriots are entering a pivotal offseason filled with question marks in the front office, on the coaching staff, and throughout the roster. Besides pride, they have nothing to gain from beating the Bills in Sunday's matchup. A loss, on the other hand, would help them expedite their rebuilding process by adding much-needed talent to the organization.
Fans at Gillette Stadium booed the team for its abysmal performance in last week's 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. It wouldn't be surprising to hear them boo the opposite result on Sunday.
