Patriots-Bears preview: Pats need to lighten the load on Drake Maye

CHICAGO -- Drake Maye hasn't yet dragged his team to victory, but he's been impressive enough that even when he makes a mistake, there's a chance he's opening the eyes of his coaches in a positive manner.

When asked this week about Maye's ability to process while surveying the field, Patriots quarterbacks coach TC McCartney brought up Maye's first interception in a loss to the Titans last week as an example of sound in-real-time thinking.

"He’s a super fast processor," McCartney said. "He sees the field really, really well. Even if you watch his first interception from last week, he saw the defender take another route. He ended up being kind of out of rhythm with his footwork and moving and then trying to throw it. But he saw the defender, he just came off of it late. He sees the field well. He processes very quickly. It’s definitely a strength of his."

In a matchup of highly-drafted quarterbacks Sunday, New England's No. 3 pick will be tasked with out-scoring Chicago's No. 1 overall choice in Caleb Williams. And to do it, Maye will have to think his way through the problems presented by one of the league's best defenses. The Bears rank fifth, allowing just 18.5 points per game, and their average of 191.3 passing yards allowed per game is eighth-best in the NFL. 

Unfortunately for Maye, if he doesn't process quickly and make productive decisions -- whether that's with his arms or his legs -- the Patriots have proven lately that they have little other recourse for moving the football.

They've handed off 70 times over the last four weeks and are averaging just 1.9 yards per carry with their backs, last in the league during that time. If that continues at Soldier Field, Maye will be forced to create in a way similar to when he accounted for 95 percent of his team's total yards in Nashville in Week 9.

Not only is that a physically exhausting way to play the position, but it can be mentally taxing as well. Particularly for a 22-year-old who has only recently taken over as the starter.

The Bears are relatively predictable in terms of the style of defense they like to play, often deploying four-man rushes with zone coverages in the secondary. But that doesn't necessarily lighten the mental burden for Maye, even if he knows what's coming.

Because the Bears are loaded with high-end athletes on that side of the ball, Maye's computing power will still be stressed. Openings will be closed off in a hurry should he hesitate.

"The decisions you have to make are still instant," McCartney said. "It happens faster, maybe, against a defense like this. You may know where you want to go, but it’s gotta go there exactly on time. I think you gotta build in breaks for the quarterback where he doesn’t have to make all these decisions every single play because it does become exhausting to make the perfect decision on every single play." 

The Patriots like the way in which Maye has handled all that's been thrown at him to this point. 

When it comes to statistical production, he's in many ways functioned on the same plane as the passer taken two picks ahead of him in the draft. 

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Maye and Williams have very similar numbers when it comes to their yards per attempt (6.2 for Maye, 6.3 for Williams) and quarterback rating (85.1 for Maye, 83.0 for Williams). And though Maye's interception percentage (3.2) is worse than Williams' (1.9), his on-target percentage has been better. Maye's 78.4 on-target percentage ranks him eighth among 36 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, whereas Williams ranks 35th with 67.4 percent of his throws being deemed "on-target," per Sports Info Solutions.

Maye has plenty to clean up. His offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt mentioned this week that the rookie's ball-handling on play-action passes and ball-security need to improve. But his accuracy, creativity and processing -- draining as it may be when he's depended upon to carry the offense -- remain encouraging.

"Part of his strength is his mental bandwidth," McCartney said. "He can handle a lot. I don’t think it’s stressed him at all in terms of what we’ve been doing. He’s pretty sharp."

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Patriots defensive front vs. Bears offensive line

The Patriots should be able to keep this one close because of injuries that have impacted Chicago's offensive line. But do they have enough playmaking juice up front to win? 

The Bears will be without both starting tackles, and they're already among the worst in the NFL when it comes to protecting their quarterback. They've allowed the league's fourth-highest pressure rate (39.5 percent) and sack rate (9.2 percent) this season, per Next Gen Stats. Williams is 30th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in the NFL this season with a 43.1 percent completion percentage when under pressure, according to Pro Football Focus.

In the running game this season, the Bears are just 26th in the league in yards per attempt (3.8), but over the last four weeks they've been better, averaging 4.9 yards per carry in that span. The Patriots, meanwhile, have struggled to stop the run all season, allowing over 100 yards in seven straight games and an average of 167.0 over their last five. 

There's a chance those numbers improve for New England with Chicago missing key pieces to their line, but Jerod Mayo's defense needs to prove it can take advantage of backup-caliber personnel.

Matchup that won't surprise you

Patriots running game vs. Bears defense

Typically this is the point in the preview when we like to try to find a matchup that may generate a little shock and awe inside your living room. But this is a matchup of two relatively predictable teams with relatively predictable playing styles. Instead, we'll just take this time to remind you that the Patriots running game -- until it proves otherwise -- is what it is. 

The Bears aren't all that imposing against the run; they're 20th in rush EPA allowed. But the Patriots have been so abysmal when handing off that it's not hard to envision another slog of a game when anyone not named Drake Maye is running the football. 

Because it seems clear they don't want to get into third-and-long situations, asking their pass-protectors to hold up in obvious passing scenarios, the Patriots have been predictably running the ball on early downs without much success. Last week against Tennessee, the Patriots had 16 of their 28 first-down plays go for one yard or less (including penalties). 

"It starts up front," Mayo said last week when asked about his team's woeful rushing performances of late.

There's evidence to back up his claims that the blocking on run calls has been problematic. New England ranks 28th in the NFL in terms of their rushing yards before contact per carry (0.92, per Next Gen Stats).

Matchup that will take years off your life

Drake Maye deep ball vs. Caleb Williams deep ball

This is the kind of game where one explosive gain for either team could help determine the outcome, which is why your heart might be in your throat any time you see either rookie quarterback drop back and take a long look down the field.

Williams, per NGS, has thrown four picks on passes that have traveled at least 20 yards down this year, which is tied with Will Levis of the Titans for most in the NFL. He also has the second-lowest completion percentage over expected on those types of throws this year. 

Still, with explosive pass-catchers like DJ Moore and Rome Odunze at his disposal, Williams is going to continue to take his shots. The Patriots are in the bottom half of the NFL this year in yards allowed on those deep throws (374, 19th). 

Maye, meanwhile, could find some openings of his own down the field against this Bears defense. Tight as Chicago has been against opposing passing attacks, they have a tendency to be a little softer against the deep ball. 

On passes that travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the Bears are 26th in completion percentage allowed (45.8) and 23rd in yards per attempt (14.8). Per Sports Info Solutions, on deeper routes -- corners, posts, fades and gos -- Chicago is tied for 28th in completion percentage allowed (50.0), 31st in quarterback rating allowed (135.4) and 31st in yards per attempt allowed (16.6).

Will Maye have time to find those openings? Will he have wideouts who can take advantage of the opportunities Maye has to chuck it deep? Can anyone confidently answer those questions in such a way that would lead them to pick the Patriots in this game?

Prediction: Bears 20, Patriots 16