Mike Vrabel looks like the front-runner to become the New England Patriots' next head coach, and that should surprise no one. But are the Patriots putting too many eggs in the Vrabel basket?
Consider this timeline: Vrabel interviewed for the New York Jets' head coach job last Friday in a move that our Phil Perry reported was "calculated" to catch New England's attention. Three days later, the Patriots fired Jerod Mayo immediately following the team's season-ending win over the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, freeing them up to hit the ground running on their coaching search.
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Then on Tuesday, the Patriots announced they conducted interviews with Byron Leftwich and Pep Hamilton -- both of whom haven't held coaching jobs since 2022. The MMQB's Albert Breer blasted those interviews as "a sham" conducted to satisfy the NFL's Rooney Rule -- which requires teams to interview at least two external minority candidates for head coach and general manager openings -- and pave the way for hiring Vrabel as soon as possible.
Those actions suggest Vrabel could be the clear top choice of Robert Kraft and Patriots ownership. It also means Vrabel can play the Patriots against themselves, particularly when it comes to the latest head coach opening on the Las Vegas Raiders.
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Breer joined Tuesday's Arbella Early Edition and noted the Raiders could be a real player for Vrabel after firing Antonio Pierce, as ex-Patriots quarterback and Raiders minority owner Tom Brady -- who is close with Vrabel -- is expected to play a prominent role in Vegas' coaching search.
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"I had people a couple of weeks ago thinking it was a fait accompli," Breer said of Vrabel potentially being hired by the Raiders. "I do wonder, because they do have the back-channel access to Vrabel that the Patriots do -- the timing of the Antonio Pierce thing was funky, right?
"Did they have some conversations over the last 36 hours like, 'Hey, we're gonna be able to get him'? Those things could certainly exist."
As Breer pointed out, Vrabel's former Patriots teammate Richard Seymour is a minority owner of the Raiders as well and is part of Vegas' search committee. So, if Vrabel wants to make the Patriots sweat -- or wants to request more money/control in New England -- he can take an interview in Las Vegas and let Brady and Seymour sell him on the Raiders job.
The Patriots technically are pursuing Ben Johnson as well after requesting an interview with the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator. But as Perry pointed out, Johnson has a pair of factors working against him.
"I would just say with Vrabel, the reason why he has as much leverage as he does when it comes to the Patriots discussions that are upcoming here is that I don't think the Patriots want another rookie head coach," Perry said. "As impressive as Ben Johnson might be, we haven't seen it. We haven't seen him at the podium. We haven't seen him dominate a room full of media that really care about this team and with a fan base that is really rabid and passionate and wants to see this thing turned around.
"I also think he's at a disadvantage. He can't meet with 83-year-old Robert Kraft in-person until the (post)season is over, so Mike Vrabel's going to be the guy to interview in-person who is a legitimate head coaching candidate who has a really good shot at getting the job, and he's going to be able to make an impression, which he's already made."
It's very possible that the Patriots end up hiring Vrabel in the end. But the fact that they don't appear to have a viable Plan B puts them in a vulnerable position if Vrabel has a change of heart.