Albert Breer explains why the Patriots should look to the Commander’s approach when rebuilding their roster through free agency.
INDIANAPOLIS -- The Patriots know as well as anyone that they could use some receiver help going into Drake Maye's second season. What they don't know is exactly where that help will be coming from.
Head coach Mike Vrabel and his front office have more cap space than any team in football this offseason. But league sources at the NFL Scouting Combine last week questioned whether they will be able to find the kind of "No. 1" level talent they need.
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"They have money to spend," said one AFC general manager, "but who’s out there for them to spend it on?"
Here are some of our takeaways from our time in Indianapolis, starting with getting a feel for what could be there for the Patriots at receiver...
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MORE PATRIOTS COVERAGE
Wideout options dwindling?
Chris Godwin has very real injury concerns for teams that are in the market for receiver help this offseason. He dislocated his ankle last year, ending his season. Back in 2021, he tore his ACL. The Bucs have publicly noted what Godwin means to the organization, and there is a chance he returns. But until he's signed, he remains a free-agent possibility for the Patriots as they seek help at that position.
Scouts laud Godwin for his professionalism and see the veteran as a good fit for Vrabel's program. One offensive coordinator said Godwin is "one of the top guys available ability-wise," but acknowledged "the injuries are real."
At the combine, the Patriots would have had an opportunity to get an idea of Tee Higgins’ asking price if he were to hit the market, and multiple league sources believe he could be looking for as much as $35 million per year. That would put him on par with the highest-paid wideout in the NFL, Minnesota's Justin Jefferson, on a per-year basis.
Evaluators are divided on Higgins' ability level. Many see him as a No. 1 type, but not a top-five player at his position -- even if he'll end up being paid as one if he gets to the market. Others are lower on Higgins when projecting his impact away from a receiver-friendly situation alongside Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati.
"You're going to have to pay him like a No. 1," said one NFC receivers coach, "and he ain't a [expletive] No. 1."
It's still unclear as to whether or not Higgins will even be available. He'll reportedly be franchise-tagged if he can't be signed by the Bengals long-term, and trading for him would require the Patriots to send away draft capital as well as pay him a hefty salary.
The Patriots are believed to be exploring all avenues to add help at the position, but Higgins' price tag -- if he shakes free -- makes it hard for some who know Vrabel to envision him as a realistic option in Foxboro.
UPDATE: The Bengals placed the franchise tag on Higgins on Monday, making him unavailable unless Cincinnati trades him.
Amari Cooper isn't thought to have much left in the tank after a disappointing stint in Buffalo, but another name to watch in free agency at the position as more of a middle-tier option would be Josh Palmer of the Chargers.
If not free agency... how about a trade?
If the next top-tier talent at receiver isn't going to come via free agency, it could come via trade. Deebo Samuel is off the market after going to Washington for a fifth-rounder. He was an imperfect option -- the 29-year-old has a reputation throughout the league for needing time to work his way into playing shape -- for a team that will be focused on bringing in culture fits under a regime led by Vrabel.
Samuel's teammate Brandon Aiyuk also could be made available, evaluators believe. The 49ers are preparing to have the ability to pay quarterback Brock Purdy on an extension, and when asked about Aiyuk this week, general manager John Lynch did not rule out the possibility of dealing him.
The Patriots made a run at Aiyuk last offseason while he held out for a new contract in San Francisco, but his preference was to stay in the Bay Area. He tore his ACL and MCL last fall, ending his season.
Seahawks wideout DK Metcalf could also be dealt. Though he isn't thought to be a polished route-runner and some wonder how he'd fit with new offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, he is younger than Samuel, has the kind of size the Patriots currently lack, and likely would cost more in a swap.
Industry sources believe a former McDaniels pupil in both New England and Las Vegas, Jakobi Meyers, could also be an option via trade. He's going into the final year of his deal with the Raiders.
What about the offensive line?
It's almost unanimous when discussing the Patriots in Indianapolis: If Ronnie Stanley hits free agency, they have to pursue him.
The Ravens could be doing with the 31-year-old left tackle what the Patriots did with their top free agents for years, sources believe, allowing him to gauge his market and then letting him come back to them with a number. Last week would have been the time for Stanley and agent Kim Miale to start to get a feel for his market.
He's viewed as the easy choice as the top tackle available, clearly surpassing others like Dan Moore and Cam Robinson in the eyes of scouts. Despite his injury history, and the possibility that he ends up back in Baltimore, Stanley was the name most frequently associated with the Patriots in conversations last week.
As Vrabel said during his media availability last week, the Patriots feel as though they have a plan in place where they can pivot to secondary options if their top targets aren't available. Their free-agent meetings began earlier than last year, allowing them to put a plan (and backup plans) in place that they feel confident in.
League sources have pegged Stanley as one of those names who should be atop New England's wish list.
Pass-rush win in the works?
The Patriots ranked last in the NFL in sacks a season ago, making them a logical suitor for just about any accomplished free-agent pass-rusher available.
That would include Philadelphia's Josh Sweat, one would think, but there are executives who look at Sweat and wonder if he represents a sound long-term investment on the free-agent market. He'll be 28 years old next season, and though he's made 61 starts in the last four years, he had a devastating knee injury in high school -- he was told his leg may have to be amputated -- that could give teams pause.
The Eagles gambled on him with relatively low investments twice: in the 2018 draft (fourth-round pick) and then again in 2021 when re-signing him. For teams who view signing Sweat as a third roll of the dice, they will be reluctant to overpay despite his strong showing in the Super Bowl.
Other free-agent pass-rushers who generated buzz as a more likely Patriots targets? Malcolm Koonce of the Raiders, Marcus Davenport of the Saints and Darrell Taylor of the Bears.
Koonce, at 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, would fit the physical profile of what Vrabel has had on the edge in the past, and he had eight sacks in 17 games last season. After bigger names like Sweat, Chase Young, DeMarcus Lawrence and Khalil Mack, multiple sources view Koonce as leading the next tier of free-agent pass-rushers.
Davenport has played just six games over the last two seasons but when healthy exhibits some rare length and power. His tools are unrefined, and he can be a little "wild" in his on-field approach, said one industry source, but his traits -- which got him drafted in the first round by the Saints in 2018 -- are intriguing. Taylor, at 6-foot-4, 255 pounds, ranked 34th in pass-rush grade by Pro Football Focus.
Harold Landry of the Titans is an intriguing fit, but league sources wonder if Vrabel would still be interested in the former Boston College product. Vrabel coached Landry in Tennessee, and he racked up nine sacks last season. But he'll be 29 next season, his motor appeared to run hot and cold by those who scouted him in 2024, and he's thought to have played at a weight lighter than his listed 252 pounds.
He ranked 146 out of 155 qualified rushers in PFF pass-rush grade a season ago.
Which young wideouts have staying power?
Third-year wideout DeMario Douglas was the recipient of praise from NFL evaluators this week as a talented pass-catcher whose abilities were not maximized under the previous regime. Paired with Josh McDaniels, said one rival defensive coach, Douglas should have a much more productive 2025 season.
(Count Rhamondre Stevenson as another player league sources view as primed for a better year with a new offensive coordinator and an improved offensive line. The fumbles have been a real issue, they acknowledge, but because of his toughness and tackle-breaking talent “he’s still a dude,” said an AFC East pro scout.)
As for second-year players Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker? Members of the previous Patriots regime question their fit in Vrabel’s locker room where mental toughness and dependability will be highly valued.
Baker’s missed curfew in London prior to a mid-season loss to the Jaguars -- he was scratched from the lineup for the game -- was indicative, sources say, of a player who needs to mature. Teammates encouraged him not to leave the team hotel after a meeting, knowing he’d return after curfew. When he returned and was reprimanded, he blamed his driver for making him late.
Where are the answers in the draft?
The Patriots are viewed by some in opposing front offices as being in a difficult position at No. 4 overall, which could put the top two non-quarterbacks -- Penn State’s Abdul Carter and Colorado’s Travis Hunter -- out of reach.
Carter was viewed by one AFC defensive coach as the top pass-rusher in the draft in the last three classes, ranking him most closely to Houston’s Will Anderson despite the two being very different types of rushers. Carter’s "fastball" is his speed rush, which will force teams to take a hard look at the foot injury that popped up in Indy last week.
The comparison to Cowboys star rusher Micah Parsons (also a freak athlete from Penn State) is an easy one for scouts. But, one high-level AFC evaluator noted, there are similarities between Carter’s scouting report and that of Von Miller when Miller entered the draft out of Texas A&M in 2011.
Hunter is viewed by scouts mostly as a cornerback and then a moonlight-at-receiver weapon. Receiver coaches I spoke to in Indy, though, view him as the best wideout in the draft. The comp for him is Philly’s DeVonta Smith, despite Hunter weighing about 20 pounds heavier at the combine than Smith did in 2021.
Hunter’s ball skills -- his hands and his ability to track the football -- are deemed to be elite. He'll need polish when it comes to route running, one receivers coach familiar with McDaniels’ system told me, but if the two-way star commits more time to the craft than he did in college, there's little question that will improve. Hunter wants to play both ways full-time, but he admitted he'd let his next team pick which one he focused on.
The Patriots may only get a crack at one of the two if two quarterbacks go inside the top-three picks. Miami’s Cam Ward is viewed by many as the top option, and several league sources believe he won’t last past the Giants with the No. 3 overall choice.
Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders has been tougher to peg in terms of the league-wide opinion on him. Some believe he could go after Ward but before the Patriots pick at No. 4 -- leaving New England to choose from either Carter or Hunter -- while others believe he could slide to the middle of the first round and be taken closer to Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart.
The view of Vrabel’s approach from other clubs is that he’ll value size. It’s a big man’s game, and the Patriots have glaring needs along both lines of scrimmage. But two of the glass-eating types considered to be top-of-the-draft options measured in such a way that taking either in the top-five could be difficult.
Michigan defensive tackle Mason Graham weighed in at 296 pounds and LSU offensive tackle Will Campbell checked in with an arm length of just over 32.5 inches, easily below the more modern-day threshold of 33 inches teams often want to see. Campbell tested as an elite athlete, but so did Missouri’s Armand Membou, and with 33.5-inch arms.
Vrabel has stated publicly that he would like to address his team’s roster needs in free agency in order to avoid having to force a need a No. 4. He also noted that trading down could be a possibility. Given the less-than-ideal options who look like they’ll be available at that spot, trading down -- if there’s a taker -- could end up being their best option.
When it comes to the offensive tackle spot in particular, multiple industry sources have linked Boston College’s Ozzy Trapilo to New England as a Day 2 name to watch.
With Vrabel wanting certainty in the types of people he’s bringing aboard, he’ll get an excellent assessment on all BC players from his good friend and Eagles head coach Bill O’Brien. New Patriots offensive line coach Doug Marrone was also at BC last year as an assistant, providing further background and potentially helping establish somewhat of a BC-to-Foxboro pipeline.
Trapilo (6-foot-8, 316 pounds, 33-inch arms) played his high school football at BC High, and he’s worked with former Patriots offensive line coach Dante Scarnecchia during the pre-draft process. Trapilo had a strong combine that included an impressive 1.77-second 10-yard split during his 40-yard dash, helping him earn a 9.02 (out of 10) Relative Athletic Score.
What about the front office movement?
League sources who view the Patriots situation from afar see a difficult situation for executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf.
Working alongside a strong personality like Vrabel -- and with Vrabel confidants Ryan Cowden and John “Stretch” Streicher in the mix -- Wolf will be tasked with helping to execute their vision. Though Wolf’s contract ultimately gives him final say on the roster, league sources with an understanding of all the personalities involved don’t envision any sort of power struggle in Foxboro. Their sense is that it is Vrabel’s show.
As the new front-office setup sorted through the combine, the group lost a key piece to the college ranks. Director of pro personnel Pat Stewart accepted the job to be Nebraska’s general manager, where he’ll work alongside Matt Rhule, as he did during stints with the Carolina Panthers and at Temple.
This isn’t necessarily viewed as a get-out-while-you-still-can harbinger of what’s to come for the pre-Vrabel regime. Stewart has long had a positive relationship with Vrabel (a fellow Buckeye), I’m told, but these big-time college football programs have been offering hard-to-pass-up salaries for pro executives to make the leap.
It’s unclear who will replace Stewart in the pro personnel role or if he will be replaced. The team is currently without a pro scouting director, but there are several experienced high-level execs on staff who could help make for up the loss, including Wolf, Cowden, Matt Groh and Alonzo Highsmith.
Changes coming to the kicking game?
Some believe the league will ultimately change the touchback rule, placing the football at the receiving team’s 35-yard line (current rules place it at the 30), which could provide an uptick in return percentages. If that’s the case, don’t be surprised if teams value kicking-game players a bit more in the draft.
When it comes to the kickers themselves, the Patriots need an answer there with Joey Slye set to hit free agency. They signed John Parker Romo to a futures contract, but they could invest in another this offseason. Former Patriots and Titans kicker Nick Folk is a free agent but is likely just a field-goal specialist at this point, making it hard for some to envision him returning to New England where a skilled kickoff kicker in an outdoor stadium would be valued.
There are thought to be talented kickers in this year’s draft, including Germany’s Lenny Krieg, who just wowed in Indy, and Arizona’s Tyler Loop.
