State of the Bruins: Playoff race update at 4 Nations Face-Off break

The Boston Bruins had a chance to go into the 4 Nations Face-Off break with some real momentum, but back-to-back defeats to the New York Rangers and Vegas Golden Knights have landed the Original Six franchise outside of a playoff spot.

The B's have been very inconsistent throughout the 2024-25 campaign, and that was evident over their last eight games.

During that stretch, they beat the Senators and Avalanche, then lost their next two games. They beat the Rangers and Wild after that, then lost their next two games. The Bruins have just one win streak longer than two games (four in a row in December) this season. Every time it looks like the B's are building momentum and about to go on a run, this group takes a step (or two) back.

The Bruins can still make the playoffs. That's not an impossible goal despite the team's struggles. But there are only 25 games left for the B's to save their season.

The NHL will pause for the next two weeks to play the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament in Montreal and Boston. Four Bruins players -- Jeremy Swayman (USA), Charlie McAvoy (USA), Elias Lindholm (Sweden) and Brad Marchand (Canada) -- will play in the tournament.

"It's a long break; you have to stay in shape," Bruins forward David Pastrnak told reporters after Saturday's loss to the Golden Knights. "Obviously, you can take time off and spend time with your family, but we have to make sure when we come back that we are ready to work because we have a lot of work ahead of us."

Here's a look at where the Bruins stand at the break.

Playoff race

The Bruins still have a chance to finish third in the Atlantic Division, but they are six points behind the Tampa Bay Lightning with two more games played.

The Bruins are only one point out of a wild card berth, although they do have more games played than every other team in the mix.

Here's a look at the wild card race at the break:

MoneyPuck gives the Bruins just a 14.9 percent chance of making the playoffs based on its model.

The Red Wings have been on fire of late with a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 games. The Islanders 7-3-0 in their last 10.

The Bruins have only three more matchups against the other five teams in the standings chart above. They play the Senators, Red Wings and Islanders once more apiece. So there's not a ton of head-to-head chances for the Bruins to pick up two points on the opponents they're battling for a wild card berth. This means the B's will need help from these teams faltering down the stretch.

Trade deadline

The Bruins don't look like a playoff team most nights, but as noted above, they remain firmly in the race with 25 games left. It's hard to imagine the Bruins being huge sellers at the March 7 trade deadline unless they just crater in the standings, and that seems unlikely. But trading away a player or two would make sense in the right circumstances.

ESPN's Emily Kaplan reported an update on the Bruins' trade deadline situation during ABC's broadcast of B's-Golden Knights on Saturday:

The B's do have a couple of players who can be free agents in the summer, and it might make sense to entertain offers for those guys, especially if an extension is unlikely.

Trent Frederic can become an unrestricted free agent in July. If the Bruins aren't confident they can sign the 26-year-old forward, it would make no sense to keep him past the trade deadline, especially when he plays the kind of style playoff teams covet. His ability to provide secondary scoring, play physical, fight, play multiple positions and kill penalties could benefit a lot of contenders.

Losing Frederic wouldn't put a huge dent in the Bruins' playoff chances, either, and it also would open up ice time for other players, maybe even prospects such as Fabian Lysell and Georgii Merkulov. Re-signing Frederic makes sense, too, but only at the right price. Overpaying for middle-six forwards has hurt the Bruins in the past.

Justin Brazeau is a little similar to Frederic in that he can score goals and his power forward play style is well-suited for the postseason. Brazeau will be a UFA in July, too. If there's a chance he leaves in free agency, it would make sense to explore potential trades.

Morgan Geekie can be a restricted free agent this summer, but he's someone the Bruins should really try to keep long term. The B's very much need wingers who can score goals, and Geekie is on pace to score more than 20 goals this season.

The Good

There are a few positives for the Bruins right now.

David Pastrnak is at the top of the list. He's been playing at an MVP-level since the calendar turned to 2025. The superstar right wing is the league's leading scorer since Jan. 1 with 31 points (15 goals, 16 assists) in 18 games, including a 13-game point streak.

Morgan Geekie's resurgence hasn't slowed down, either. His goal Saturday gave him 17 for the season, which ties a career high he set a year ago. Geekie has tallied 20 points (13 goals, seven assists) in his last 26 games. He has completely turned his season around after scoring only one goal in his first 18 games.

Matthew Poitras has yet to find the back of the net since being called up in mid-January, but he does have seven assists in 12 games during that span. The young center deserves a spot on the NHL roster for the rest of the season.

The Bruins have been a bottom-tier team offensively for most of the season and rank 25th in scoring at 2.75 goals per game. But since Jan. 1, the B's are 11th at 3.05 goals scored per game.

The Bad

Many of the best Bruins teams of the last 15 or so years have been defensive juggernauts. This year's group is far from that.

In fact, Boston's defensive play over the last five weeks has been pretty awful. Here's a look at where the Bruins rank in several important categories at even strength since the start of January.

It's hard to win games consistently when you give up so many scoring chances and shots. The only way around it is scoring a crazy amount of goals and/or having your goaltender bail you out all the time. Jeremy Swayman has played a bit better of late, but he's still not at the top 10 goalie level that is expected after he signed that massive extension before Opening Night.

Elias Lindholm has been a huge disappointment this season. He signed a seven-year, $54.25 million contract in free agency last summer to be a top-six center, but he has played at a third-line center rate offensively with 29 points (10 goals, 19 assists) in 57 games.

Lindholm did tally five points (two goals, three assists) in his last six games before the break, and he should get plenty of ice time for Sweden at the 4 Nations Face-Off. A great tournament for Lindholm could give him the boost of momentum he needs to finish the NHL season strong for the Bruins. Boston badly needs it.