Top 10 busts to avoid in your fantasy football draft

Sometimes, the best picks in fantasy football are the ones you don't make.

We've all been there. You select a big name or hyped-up player early in your draft, only for them to be dead weight on your roster throughout the season. Those kinds of moves can torpedo your chances of winning a fantasy football championship.

That's why it's important to do your research before your draft and identify players who are being overvalued based on their average draft position (ADP). You should be mindful of factors such as injury history, team situation, offensive line, and surrounding talent.

Fortunately for you, we did that research and came up with a list of 10 potential busts you'll want to avoid this year at their current ADP.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins (Bye Week: 10)

Tagovailoa was in the MVP conversation last season, largely thanks to a supremely talented supporting cast that included wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. He'll have the same weapons at his disposal in 2023, though his injury woes make him a risky QB1 selection. There's a high ceiling for Tagovailoa if he stays healthy, but we suggest safer options such as Daniel Jones or Kirk Cousins.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (Bye Week: 14)

Murray finished 19th in fantasy points among QBs last season. Despite that, he'll still be overvalued by someone in your draft because of his reputation as a dual threat. Don't be that person in your draft. Murray took a step back as a passer last season and now he'll be without his top wideout DeAndre Hopkins, while his status for Week 1 is also unclear as he recovers from a torn ACL. Take him as a solid backup late in your draft, but don't put yourself in a situation where he's your starter.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (Bye Week: 11)

Kamara, once a no-doubt first-round pick in fantasy football drafts, should no longer be considered an RB1. Taysom Hill's increased role out of the backfield killed Kamara's value and is likely to do so again in 2023. Kamara totaled only four touchdowns and averaged just four yards per carry last season. Wait until the middle rounds to even think about selecting him.

Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks (Bye Week: 5)

Walker was a great addition for anyone lucky enough to snag him off the waiver wire last year. However, he's a risky pick at his current ADP of 33rd overall. The 22-year-old doesn't offer much upside in PPR formats and will compete for carries with second-round rookie Zach Charbonnet.

Dameon Pierce, RB, Houston Texans (Bye Week: 7)

Pierce was one of the most hyped "sleeper" RBs heading into 2022, his rookie season. He started the year off hot but seemed to run out of gas late in the campaign and suffered a season-ending ankle injury. Now, he'll have former Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary joining him in the backfield for arguably the worst offense in the league. Hard pass on Pierce at his ADP of 44th overall.

D'Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (Bye Week: 10)

We all know what Swift is at this point. He's a talented dual-threat running back who simply cannot be counted on to stay healthy for a full NFL season. The Lions grew tired of this and traded him to the Eagles during the offseason. Philly presents an intriguing opportunity for Swift with its loaded offense, but there are too many red flags. Swift's injury history, the Eagles' running back depth, and the number of mouths to feed in the offense should be enough to convince you to pass on him when he pops up on your draft board.

Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders (Bye Week: 13)

Adams is arguably the best wide receiver in the game, so this has nothing to do with talent. It has everything to do with his quarterback situation as Jimmy Garoppolo will be under center for Las Vegas in 2023. Garoppolo hasn't been able to stay on the field in recent years and if he gets hurt again, it'll be former New England Patriots backup Brian Hoyer throwing Adams the football. That's a nightmare for fantasy managers.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans (Bye Week: 7)

Hopkins remains a difference-maker and can lead your fantasy team to victory on any given week. That'll just be far more difficult in the Titans' offense, which is predicated on the run game with Derrick Henry. Not to mention it'll be Ryan Tannehill under center for Tennessee until rookie Will Levis or Malik Willis takes over. That's a situation fantasy managers should want no part of.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bye Week: 5)

No Tom Brady should mean no Mike Evans (or any other Buccaneers wideout, for that matter) on your fantasy team. Baker Mayfield enters the season as Tampa's QB and you don't need us to tell you that's a massive downgrade. Evans already was touchdown-dependent with Brady as his signal-caller. Now, he might be nothing more than a decent bye-week fill-in.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (Bye Week: 9)

Kittle salvaged his 2022 fantasy football season with seven touchdowns over his final four games. Other than that, he was a disappointment for those who drafted him to be a weekly set-it-and-forget-it tight end. If he slips a bit in your draft, go for it. The tight end position is a wasteland in fantasy football, so you don't want to wait too long to get your guy. Just don't expect weekly TE1 production from Kittle, or any other TE not named Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews.