As we step through the first weekend of summer, getting outdoors is no doubt top of mind for many. Outdoor BBQs, beach days, festivals and graduation parties all hinge upon the weekend forecast. Even the third round of the Travelers Championship will kick off with a delay due to forecasted rain for Saturday morning. Odds are glaringly high for Saturday that showers will move through in the morning hours, but there will be decent windows for getting outdoors too.
An upper-level disturbance that’s sat across the mid-Atlantic through much of the week has finally lifted into New England, which keeps odds of showers and thunderstorms modest through the weekend.
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Saturday morning starts foggy along the coast, with showers from the Cape and into Central Mass. as the system nears. Rain will likely be heavier more often than not from mid-morning to early afternoon. It seems that around 2pm, most of the region dries out from south to north. Isolated light showers linger for far Western Mass. This weakens as it moves eastbound around 4pm. Evening temperatures will near the upper 70s to low 80s. The evening dries out, and we will even come across sun late in the evening. This will allow temperatures to drop and will stabilize the atmosphere Saturday night through Sunday morning. The stable air overall means Sunday will start with mostly sunny conditions. It’s the influence of the sun that induces rain throughout the evening, with isolated pockets favoring Worcester, Leominster, Metro West and the Merrimack. These tend to bring thunder and lightning, but doesn’t seem potent enough to turn severe. High temperatures are slated to reach the mid-80s for most.
We know it won’t rain every hour of the weekend, so why can’t we give the all clear? It’s a valid question. But during setups like such, it’s far more efficient to convey the odds or probability, instead of answering with a simple yes or no. Meaning some hours are more likely to have rain then others.
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Factors that go into this:
We’re in between two weather systems. The first is slow to pass through on Sunday evening, and another moving in early next week from the west. It would take a much more substantial push of drier, and perhaps cooler, air from the northwest to shut things off. That flush hasn’t happened, and isn’t forecast to in the near term.
Southerly flow has kept tropical-to- subtropical air in place. It’s the reason humidity levels crept up. It’s warmer and more humid, and ultimately more buoyant. As it’s lifted into the vertical of the atmosphere, it’s condensed into clouds…which isn’t enough to ruin weekend plans, but given the anomalously higher moisture content, those clouds to wring out rainfall.
Monday seems to be the next go at showers, which do look wide spread, and boisterous enough to produce thunderstorms. Right now, forecasters with the NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has eyes on the DMV and Mid-Atlantic for the strongest activity. But the worst remains to be seen. But it’s close enough to home that the First Alert Weather has its sights on it too.
