Overnight Tonight: Variable clouds, patchy coastal fog. Lows in the 60s. Wednesday & Thursday: Fair sky, chance isolated late thunder. Highs in the 80s.
Flash flood warnings that were issued earlier Tuesday across the region have expired as a rainy Fourth of July comes to a close in New England.
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Independence Day in New England – and specifically in Boston – draws millions of eyes, and weather is always a big part of that. Add to that each of our hopes and plans for cookouts and time outside, and there may be no more important weather day of the year!
This year, the weather has disappointed for most of us: frequent showers, rain and thunder are expected during the day, though there are exceptions…and many communities will improve for all-important fireworks displays.
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Showers have continued to increase both in coverage and intensity during the midday and afternoon for much of New England – the exceptions being in far Western and particularly northwestern New England around the Champlain Valley, where only a passing shower is expected with more in the way of sunshine – as well as the Crown of Maine, and for much of the day, even Cape Cod.
The Cape started with showers and even some thunder but as most of New England sees increasing rain and thunder, the Cape should break some humid sunshine out for a time during the midday and afternoon! Elsewhere, the rain and thunder won’t be the type we duck inside for a half hour as the storm moves through – it will last hours at a time. In fact, where rain falls heaviest, a few localized spots of flash flooding are a possibility.
The biggest thing to remember is not to drive through flooded areas and be cautious of rural road washouts…and keep in mind the phrase “when thunder roars, go indoors” – if you can hear thunder, lightning is close enough to be a danger and you want to head inside. By early evening, showers and thunder will break into pieces – not done yet, but becoming less organized, while the more coherent cluster of rain and thunder settles southeast across the South Shore of MA to the South Coast of New England, but should weaken for most communities by fireworks time.
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Our team is just a bit concerned that a gentle north or northeast breeze behind the storms, near the coast, may carry a few fog banks toward the shore, and could result in reduced visibility in low-altitude clouds and fog for a couple of coastal communities between Portsmouth and Plymouth, but that’s a bit of a roulette game as to what town, if any, turns the wind just right for that to happen.
Regardless, fog and clouds should fill in overnight near the coast and especially on Cape Cod, while the Supermoon – a moon closer to earth than normal – will aid in raising tidal levels just enough for some splashover and minor coastal flooding at high tide around midnight. The good news is the weather looks great Wednesday through Friday – an isolated storm is possible each late day or evening, but most won’t see it, instead finding a fair sky, continued humidity and temperatures responding to the sun by rising into the 80s for three days of real summer weather.
Three days of summer fun before an unsettled pattern returns to New England with another slow-moving jet stream level disturbance increasing the chance of showers and thunder Saturday afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast, then across the entirety of New England Sunday, particularly during the afternoon.
With a dip in the jet stream – called a “trough” – returning to the Northeast this weekend into next week, the elevated chance for scattered showers and thunder, particularly during the afternoons, will also return through most of next week, and is evident in our exclusive First Alert 10-day forecast.
